CASHEWS
(VIETNAM/INDIA) Since Onam (Last weeks holiday in Kerala,
India) ended, the cashew market has been reasonably quiet. The domestic market
has firmed slightly and most major packers believe cashew kernel trade will
firm during the final quarter. Much business has already been booked
world wide with both India and Vietnam therefore suppliers are holding prices
firm at present. Whether the Western market embraces these levels by taking up
these current levels remains to be seen as it has happened previously this year
only to once again soften. PINE NUTS
(CHINA) Market has been steady. The size of the
2002 (December) crop looks likely to be smaller based on recent reports from
some major Chinese suppliers. Should have a clearer picture on new season
pinenuts over the coming weeks. BRAZIL
KERNELS (BOLIVIA and BRAZIL) Market has eased slightly
over the past few weeks as it has been reasonably quiet. Seems as though the
Bolivians are well sold and may very well sell out in the not too distant
future. ALMONDS
(AUSTRALIA) Spot pricing is reasonably
firm however most major consumers are contracted until new season. ALMONDS
(USA) With such a large amount of small nuts being harvested already, it seems the very high estimates may very well be justified. Pricing for any nuts larger than a 27/30 seem firm with much business already being booked. Please contact your nearest Scalzo office if you have not received new season pricing. WALNUTS
(USA) Not much has changed since last months
report as everyone is waiting for the new crop estimate to be released in early
September (next week ). Crop is expected to be lower than last years
and hence starting prices are expected to be up on last year. Some reports of
competitive new season pricing have been floating around however this will most
likely be old season material. PISTACHIOS
(USA) New season indications have come out however the
estimate will come out later in the month. Will have a clearer idea by then on where
this market will start and where it may settle. Expect early season pricing to
command a slight premium due to the short fall of last crop. HAZELNUTS
(TURKISH) 2002 crop raw material is slowly entering the local market with little activity occurring at present. The crop size for 2002 is expected to be in the vicinity of 650-700,000 tonnes which is slightly up from last year. A lot of doubt remains in the Turkish hazelnut market of what role the FKB will be allowed to play for the coming season which will dictate prices going forward. There is a leaning tendency that the support that the FKB will be able to provide will not be enough to support the growers and this will put a lot of selling pressure into the market. We will not see the true effect of this for another few weeks when farmers start to bring goods onto the market and when a support price will be set. The other issue is the continuing stockpile that the FKB is producing; it is understood that the stock levels in their hands to be around 220,000 tonne in shell, which goes back to 1999. This will also be a key factor for forward pricing policies. Key buyers are yet to make any purchases at present due to the prices being relatively high but this is only due to the limited quantity entering the market, Once larger parcels arrive we expect to see softening in the market. HAZELNUTS
(USA) The Oregon crop will be small due to the typical on/off nature hence relying on Turkish imports. MACADAMIAS Some well needed rain has
been falling in many growing regions most recently. Hopefully this will
continue for good foundations for next year’s crop. Until then, availability
will be tight until new season material is available. PECANS In recent weeks, pricing on fancy
grades from the USA have firmed. This is due largely to the fact pecan shellers
are heavily booked for new season which has resulted in depleted supplies for
fancy grade material. This coupled along with the weakening exchange against
the USD has lead to another price rise. Manufactured grades remain
unchanged. TURKISH
FIGS There has been buying
activity over the last couple of weeks for the 2002 crop Lerida figs at rather
attractive prices certainly compared to 2001. The crop is continuing to develop
well and they expect to have a good quality crop. Shipments are expected to
commence in the 2nd week of October 2002. This is now being shown in
the prices being offered for this season. We would recommend booking
as early as possible to avoid delays in shipment, as demand for the product is
at it highest over that initial period. Pricing is available now
upon request. RAISINS
There
is pressure in the market to increase prices from the growers and processors
where they have been trading under conditions where there has been no return
for some 6 months. Even with the slight increase processors are demanding the
price is still at an all time low. Continued discussions are being had for a
vine destruction program for the 2002/2003 season to bring prices to a more
reasonable level as at the current level of returns to the growers are poor. APRICOTS
(TURKEY)
The market in Turkey is
still very firm due to limited quantities entering the market from the farmers.
It looks as though the farmers are prepared to sit on their inventory to see
where prices head to but this is creating little interest with the major
buyers. Very little processing is occurring at present for this reason. It will be only a matter of time
before the growers require cash and we should see some softening in the prices
once this occurs. The latest figure of the
2002 Turkish apricot crop is 40,000 to 45,000 tonnes with an estimated carry
over of 10,000 tonnes The fact remains that the 2002 crop will be some 40% of
last year crop size. SULTANAS (TURKEY) The first small loads of the
2002 crop have entered the market with very little product being traded on the
Taris as prices being demanded are relatively high while the major part of the
crop is still going through its final drying days. We would expect to see
larger quantities enter the market in the next week and this should soften
prices. The latest estimation for
the 2002 crop size is 240,000 tonnes. The expected carry over of the
2001 crop is 40,000 tonnes and at this stage the Taris has made no buying
decisions with regards to the 2002 crop. This will be monitored closely as to
how much buying power they will have this year. The Taris will announce their
support price at the end of this month.
The news from the
growing/drying regions is not favorable. There is a high percentage of low
quality fruit due to a sickness that has been formed on the clusters named
“KULLEME “ this is having an adverse effect on the fruit developing into
lighter colors. It is expected that the
majority of the crop will be either grade 8 or 9 with little grade 10 and the
majority of this product will be either used during the Ramadan period or
picked up by processors early in the crop. There will likely be higher premiums
being paid for the grade 10 from last year. PRUNES -
(U.S.A) The quantity for the 2002 crop is expected to be around 10% lower than 2001 due to a lower bearing acreage this year compared to 2001 and 20% lower than the year 2000. The official government estimate is for 2002 is at 155,000 tons. Prices have remained firm as a result, with most packers not yet offering 2002 crop, and only making sporadic offers for remaining 2001 stocks. Overall, shipments to the end of June 2002 -- the latest data available— show that shipments for the industry are at 3% lower than 1 year ago, no doubt attributable to the higher prices. The total bearing
acreage for 2002 crop is estimated at 76,000 acres, compared to the reported
bearing acreage for the 2001 crop at 86,000 bearing acres. The 10,000 acre reduction is a result of the
tree-pull program removing about 14,000 (?) acres, and about 4,000 acres
becoming bearing that had previously been non-bearing DESICCATED COCONUT
The market for desiccated
coconut from all major regions is still very firm while they experience a down
turn in raw nut supply. The greatest downturn in
supply has been seen in Sri Lanka where exports for the last size months have
been just 9,000 tons compared with 30,000 tons for the corresponding period
last year. This has put a lot of
pressure for supply onto the Philippines and Indonesia while they also
experience some downturn in raw nut supply. The Government of Sri Lanka
maintained the policy of high import duty on vegetable oils. This resulted in a
high price of coconut oil and fresh coconuts. Desiccated coconut millers in the
country have found it difficult to procure sufficient nuts at reasonable
prices. It negatively affected the shipment of desiccated coconut during the
period. The preliminary export figure for January to June 2002 revealed that it
dropped to only 8,800 m/t as compared to 25,400 m/t in the corresponding period
last year and 38,000 m/t in Jan to June 2000. Due to this critical issue
from Sri Lanka major buyers have shifted to other suppliers being the
Philippines and Indonesia. In spite of the low production in the Philippines
the producers/exporters in the country maintained high export volume until June
2002. To a lesser extent increased exports were also seen in Indonesia. Whether
the strong tone will continue in the second half of the year is a function of
many factors however most factors involved are very bullish and could push
prices further upwards. In the supply side we
continue to watch the situation in Sri Lanka. If the Government maintains the
high import duty on vegetable oils then export will continue to be low. If they
withdraw the import policy, it may take sometime for the industry to adjust to
the new policy, Hence supply of desiccated coconut from this source will
continue to be low in the coming months. We believe exports will be 40%
compared to last year. We also anticipate a lower
volume of desiccated coconut from the Philippines and Indonesia for the second
half of 2002. Raw materials are becoming scarce and producers have to compete
with Copra makers and oil millers to obtain sufficient raw material. We
estimate exports from these regions to be lower than last year. Although prices are
relatively high at present there are strong indications that prices could
continue to firm. There is still good demand from Eastern Europe and the Middle
East (Traditional Sri Lankan markets) and consumers in Europe and USA are
showing interest to buy desiccated coconut for their requirements at the end of
the year. With all of the above
factors prices are expected to increase toward the end of the year and into the
early parts of 2003. CHINESE
SESAME SEED: Prices on Chinese Seed remain stable –
however there is anticipation the market will firm shortly following a South
Korean tender of 5000mt which is expected to be awarded to China today – this
should see prices firm. Sowing is progressing well, although it is anticipated
the total area sown will be roughly 30% smaller than last year. Weather has
been favorable in the planting regions and presently all indications are that
the seed quality will be on par with last year – which is promising. New crop
will be available for shipment at the end of this month. Most anticipate the
market will firm but aren’t expecting a major increase. INDIAN
SESAME SEED: Prices have firmed slightly due to a lack
of rain presently facing Indian Farmers, whilst clouds have developed in many
of the main agricultural areas, Rain is still lacking in most parts. The rain
is required both to nourish plants, but also to soften the ground to enable
maximum planting, without rain prices have firmed to reflect the potential
reduction in yield versus last year. At this stage the effect has been minimal
but will become more pronounced if the rains continue to remain scarce. As with the Chinese Sesame, now appears a
good time to cover short to medium term requirements, giving buyers some
respite and allowing them to monitor the progress of the new crop before making
any long-term buying decisions. CENTRAL
AMERICAN SESAME SEED: Pricing in this region will be largely
determined by what transpires in India and China in the coming weeks, given
these origins produce the volume. Good yields and favorable quality from both
origins will go a long way to keeping C/A prices in check (assuming normal
output from C/A – which is anticipated at this stage) ____________________________________________________________________________________ Basfoods (Aust) would like to
take this opportunity to extend sincere thanks to Scalzo Food Industries for their help and support in
the development of this months market report. Scalzo Food Industries can be
contacted at their web site located at http//www.scalzofoods.com.au or
alternatively by email at scalzo@scalzofooods.com.au __________________________________________________________________________________________________ |
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